Let's begin with the obvious: what can Myanmar most expect to gain from its chairmanship of ASEAN?
First, a higher profile than it has already gained since initiating reforms in 2011 – in other words, more than a mere debut, but a debut with a splash. Second, a more "sympathetic" platform from which that message of reform can be spread and shared. Linked to that is the ability to leverage the ASEAN frameworks to gain more support and assistance to improve or address domestic priorities. This is more evident, I think, in the economic sphere.
The gains are the easy part – what at this point are the main challenges facing Myanmar as its year in the ASEAN chair begins?
The more obvious challenges are the domestic ones, which will most likely distract the leadership from its ASEAN duties. Those domestic challenges may also be raised at the ASEAN and regional forums and discussions, so Myanmar does need to have credible responses ready. A related challenge is the continuing skepticism of Myanmar's ability to lead sensitive topics on the regional agenda. Evidently, there's a lot of interest on how Myanmar will handle the South China Sea issue. But let's not forget that Myanmar is also chairing the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights. Human rights is, of course, related to issues of democratization and peace, so there is a domestic dimension to that, as well as a regional dimension. Plus, Myanmar's role as chair of the ASEAN Civil Society Conference will prove a test of how inclusive the current administration is with regard to engaging NGOs and civil society. These are what I call the "substantive" issues. Then there are logistical and organizational challenges of chairing key ASEAN meetings in the country throughout the year. ASEAN now has not one but two summits, the second one involving heads of state and government from important world nations, including the US.
You talk about domestic challenges and Myanmar has many. What will Myanmar's ASEAN partners be expecting from it during the year ahead?
I think there is considerable expectation on the part of the other ASEAN member states for Myanmar's chairmanship year to be a substantial one, and not just going through the motions of chairing for chairing's sake. I mean to say that a lot more is expected of Myanmar's ability to chair and lead regional discussions – different from, say, the other "newer" members, like Cambodia and Laos. Of course, ASEAN members, like the rest of the world, are also looking at how Myanmar will continue its balancing act with large neighbours like China, with whom the country has significant bilateral relations. Additionally, Japan's increasing role in Myanmar bears watching, as it now appears to be going beyond just economics, and broadening into humanitarian assistance. The elephant in the room, so to speak, will be the religious animosities. If there are no new flare-ups around the time of the summits or the ministerial meetings, the topic may not find its way into any statement. However, if something happens, then that issue will probably overshadow the regional [concerns].
Does Myanmar's relationship with China hamper its ability to play a third-party role in the South China Sea disputes?
Myanmar officials maintain that they will go with ASEAN consensus for issues like the South China Sea. The point ASEAN has been making since 2012 is that countries should balance national and regional interests. In other words – do not let bilateral issues rock the regional boat. So, where ASEAN unity is at stake, so to speak, the chair needs to decide on the part of ASEAN. So Myanmar will probably not be playing any third-party role in mediating disputes per se, but, as ASEAN chair, will have to work closely with other ASEAN members who have traditionally taken on this third-party "neutral" mediator role. Countries like Indonesia, for example. Personally, I would think that Myanmar is trying to make it clear to the world that it is coming out of China's embrace.
You touched on the religious animosities we've seen flare up in Myanmar since June 2012. You've written about the growing tendency toward populist politics in Myanmar, which I think has contributed to the relative silence by many prominent Myanmar political figures on the issue. Does Myanmar's chairmanship offer it the opportunity to reframe perceptions of Myanmar as intolerant? Could Myanmar's chairmanship force it to confront this issue in a more substantive way?
Yes, the growing spectre of economic nationalism has everyone skirting around the issue, because it is going to cost votes. Tempting though it may be to use the ASEAN chairmanship as a catch-all for addressing all that is still "wrong" in Myanmar, I think it is really imperative for the Thein Sein administration to do this as part of the peace negotiations and domestic reforms. We have here practically an unprecedented window for the current administration to reframe these perceptions, as you have put it, as its legacy, come whatever may in 2015.
So ASEAN is not necessarily the place to do that kind of work, but the chairmanship could complement that process, given the profile and resources its ASEAN chairmanship will give Myanmar ahead of 2015?
Yes, you could say that. ASEAN processes complement the work, but do not in themselves provide a panacea. An exception would be of course the kind of "quiet diplomacy" that ASEAN prides itself on. Instead of splashing it blow-by-blow in the headlines, negotiations are done in a manner comfortable for all parties concerned. Having succeeded with this in the Cambodia conflict of the 1970s and 1980s, Myanmar will appreciate ASEAN's "good offices" in this way. The chairmanship year may just provide that much more impetus for Myanmar to push forward.
You had a nice turn of phrase in one of your recent articles, where you talked about optimism itself becoming an obstacle in Myanmar. "Myanmar is probably as ready as any ASEAN member state can be to undertake the responsibilities of an ASEAN chair," you also wrote. But are we expecting too much?
We all have high expectations of Myanmar and its ASEAN debut, me more so than most people. Are these expectations too high? Probably so. But Myanmar has also kind of brought this on itself, by the rapidity of its opening up. We could look at the situation of high expectations from both sides: Myanmar's opening up has set the bar higher for what we can expect from Myanmar in 2014. But on the flip side, the very real challenges of opening up with such rapidity also presents some grounds for concern about whether Myanmar is taking on too much, despite the range of support from friends and partners. This will get clearer as 2014 progresses.
Source: http://www.news.myanmaronlinecentre.com/2014/01/18/myanmar-in-the-chair-from-a-myanmar-academics-perspective/
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