The nationwide ceasefire: Myanmar's road to peace

The nationwide ceasefire: Myanmar's road to peace

By Aung Naing Oo   |   Sunday, 03 November 2013

Over the past 20 months, the government has signed peace agreements with 14 non-state armed groups. Talks are continuing with the few groups who have not yet reached agreement. Given Myanmar's 64-year history of civil war, this is a monumental achievement. Yet many daunting challenges remain on the road to peace.

One of these is the urgent need to secure and stabilise these ceasefires in order to enable the peace process to move forward. To this end, the government is attempting something that has never been tried before: a Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) including all of the armed groups that have been fighting for political change and greater autonomy in Myanmar.

For Myanmar's political transition to be genuine and enduring it is critical that all stakeholders are involved in the process. The nationwide ceasefire is critical for creating a participatory environment that includes the non-state armed groups.

It is important that all sign the NCA in order to bring peace to Myanmar. Armed ethnic groups are meeting this week in Laiza, the headquarters of the Kachin Independence Organisation, to discuss whether they will sign the agreement.

The NCA offers both immediate and long-term benefits. On the immediate and practical side, the ceasefire will resolve a nagging provision of the penal code - article 17/1 - that empowers security forces to detain individuals deemed to have come into contact with illegal armed groups. This has stood in the way of building peace in Myanmar. In the long-run, the NCA will contribute to many of the fundamental building blocks of peace, including confidence-building measures, comprehensive codes of conduct between the Tatmadaw and ethnic armies, clear demarcation of territory and, above all, joint monitoring mechanisms.

The NCA will allow ethnic armed groups to travel freely without weapons across demarcation lines and across the country. They will all be issued ID cards, a process that is already underway for several of the ethnic ceasefire groups. They will have access to the media and the freedom to consult with all stakeholders. The NCA will also allow these groups to establish liaison offices where necessary and, significantly, will enable humanitarian actors to deliver assistance to people in conflict areas.

The NCA is a pragmatic attempt to end all hostilities in what has been a horribly destructive war that is well into its seventh decade. It will consolidate previous agreements and is necessary for the peace process to move on to political dialogue, which aims to settle the many grievances ethnic groups hold. Most crucially, the NCA will affirm the commitment of all armed groups, including the Tatmadaw, to peace and to the peaceful settlement of problems that confront Myanmar.

Nothing is simple and straightforward in a peace process. For decades, ethnic armed groups have called for a nationwide truce. Ideally, the NCA should fulfil this desire. However, there are voices of concern. Some ethnic groups worry that by signing the NCA they will be providing legitimacy and political kudos to the government without getting anything in return. However, the NCA is a mutually-beneficial process. It forges a shared political destiny. It provides both legitimacy and a political way forward for all stakeholders.

There will be no repercussions for those who decide not to sign the nationwide ceasefire. Those who participate will not be required to give up their weapons or territory. Nor will the process of political settlement end with the NCA - one of the key fears among the ethnic groups. The agreement is just an important means to move the process forward. If it does not work out, it does not close off other ways forward - it will be possible to go back to the drawing board, or even go back to fighting.

Who will sign the NCA? From the government side, it is likely that senior leaders from the government, the hluttaw and the Tatmadaw will be signatories. All armed groups will have the opportunity to sign the document. There may be others, such as opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, who will also ink or witness the deal.

If it becomes a reality, Nay Pyi Taw intends to invite several international dignitaries, such as the ASEAN secretary general, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon to the ceremony. Not only will all key stakeholders in Myanmar's armed conflict show their commitment to ending all active military engagement at the ceremony, they will do so in the presence of esteemed members of the international community.

Importantly, the NCA will not be an ultimatum: The possibility will remain open for groups that choose not to sign now to do so at a later date. They can sign at any time. Even if they decide not to sign immediately, they will be invited to the signing ceremony.

To maintain the momentum for peace, the government intends to schedule the NCA signing ceremony before the end of 2013. The signing of the nationwide ceasefire will usher in the long-awaited peace dialogue aimed at negotiating an enduring political settlement.

The 64-year-old civil war has seriously damaged the relationship that our forbears established through the Panglong Agreement, which they came together and drafted to ensure independence from Britain. Ideally, the NCA is a process of normalising the relationship among their descendents among all ethnic groups. One could see the nationwide ceasefire as the beginning of national reconciliation.

Despite all that has been achieved in the past two years, there is still significant distrust on the part of the armed ethnic groups toward the peace process. Given Myanmar's protracted history of violence, abuses and broken promises, this is completely understandable. Blame cannot be placed on anyone for having doubts or concerns.

With or without the NCA, there is no doubt that the peace process will go on. All parties, from the president, chief negotiator U Aung Min, the Tatmadaw and leaders of the parliament to the non-state armed groups, have repeatedly demonstrated their commitment to peace. But without cementing ceasefires at this time through the NCA and turning them into durable peace through political dialogue, the peace process is at risk of running into roadblocks. A failure to move forward brings about the risk of moving backwards. Ceasefire violations, of which there have been many over the past two years, can have the devastating effect of turning the clock backward.

Beyond the leaders on all sides, the nationwide ceasefire should be a clarion call for the nation of Myanmar and all of its people, especially ethnic minorities, to end the history of violence and find a path to peace.

The NCA offers a real opportunity for all of the key stakeholders to end hostilities and make peace for the first time in Myanmar's modern history. It will lead to political dialogue. Ultimately, the nationwide ceasefire can represent a turning point for the country, a chance for political leaders on all sides to leave a legacy of peace - a legacy sorely lacking in Myanmar - for the generations to come.

Aung Naing Oo is associate director of the Peace Dialogue Program at the Myanmar Peace Center.

Source: http://www.news.myanmaronlinecentre.com/2013/11/03/the-nationwide-ceasefire-myanmars-road-to-peace/